Before you trust an AI with money, see how it actually advised

Four virtual accounts right now:

AIs beating the index: 0 of 14; AIs beating the crowd: 0 of 14.

Council-minus-crowd interval: no conclusion yet, 86 questions of the 350 needed.

Every piece of advice is sealed before the market opens, then checked against the outcome.

Data as of 2026-11-12 12:43 ET, prices as of Nov 12, 2026.

The issue in 2 minutes

How to read this page in 60 seconds

  1. "0 of 14" means none of the 14 questions has yet confirmed "the Council beats the crowd": there is too little data, this is not a skill rating.
  2. "Council" is the joint decision of several AIs merged into one forecast. "Crowd" is the price on the same question at Polymarket and Kalshi.
  3. Percent to rise is the probability the market goes up over the period (50% is a coin, 100% is full certainty). "Wrong if" is the level at which the call counts as wrong and is revised.
  4. "91 of 350" means 91 comparable questions are measured and 350 are needed for a conclusion. So there is no conclusion yet, only the state of play.
  5. How to check the seal: every forecast is written down before the market opens and can be checked against the open ledger: see How to verify.
  6. This is not advice and no real money is involved: the accounts are virtual.

What cannot be faked

Zero baselines next to the Council score

Virtual accounts: holding cash $100,258 · a 60/40 stock/bond portfolio $99,594 · the S&P 500 (bought and held) $98,885 · the Council $97,069.

Against simple rules (Brier, lower is better; a coin gives 0.25): the AIs' consensus 0.243 · weighted by past accuracy 0.242 · USA 0.243 · China 0.243 (191). "Same as yesterday": Brier 0.249 (165).

What the Council would do

Forecasts of the leading AIs of the USA and China for 12 markets over four horizons. Where a model has no new answer, its position is unchanged.

IndicatorNowDayWeekMonth6 monthsAIs vs the crowd
S&P 500 · other and the crowd ▾7,635.30▲ +0.21%Hold · 71% of the AIs chose itaverage chance of a rise: USA 44% · China 44%(effective voices ≈ 2.0)
WeekHold · 79% of the AIs chose itaverage chance of a rise: USA 49% · China 44%(effective voices ≈ 1.8)
MonthTrim · 50% of the AIs chose itaverage chance of a rise: USA 51% · China 43%(effective voices ≈ 2.7)
6 monthsBuy on dips · 50% of the AIs chose itaverage chance of a rise: USA 60% · China 59%(effective voices ≈ 1.8 · on deviations from climatology ≈ 1.10)
AIs vs the crowdAIs: 40% chance of a rise · crowd 28% · effective voices ≈ 2.0 ↗ price at Thu 6:40 AM , $7k traded
Nasdaq-100 · other horizons and the crowd ▾28,433.53▲ +0.21%Trim · 57% of the AIs chose itaverage chance of a rise: USA 41% · China 41%(effective voices ≈ 2.0)
WeekHold · 57% of the AIs chose itaverage chance of a rise: USA 44% · China 42%(effective voices ≈ 1.8)
MonthTrim · 36% of the AIs chose itaverage chance of a rise: USA 52% · China 40%(effective voices ≈ 2.7)
6 monthsBuy on dips · 43% of the AIs chose itaverage chance of a rise: USA 61% · China 58%(effective voices ≈ 1.8 · on deviations from climatology ≈ 1.10)
AIs vs the crowdAIs: 38% chance of a rise · crowd 26% · effective voices ≈ 2.0 ↗ price at Thu 6:40 AM ET, $9 traded thin market
Dow Jones · other horizons and the crowd ▾52,682.52▲ +0.37%Hold · 86% of the AIs chose itaverage chance of a rise: USA 52% · China 52%(effective voices ≈ 2.0)
WeekHold · 71% of the AIs chose itaverage chance of a rise: USA 53% · China 53%(effective voices ≈ 1.8)
MonthHold · 57% of the AIs chose itaverage chance of a rise: USA 55% · China 55%(effective voices ≈ 2.7)
6 monthsBuy on dips · 57% of the AIs chose itaverage chance of a rise: USA 58% · China 60%(effective voices ≈ 1.8 · on deviations from climatology ≈ 1.10)
AIs vs the crowdno price read
Chip index · other horizons and the crowd ▾10,557.32▼ −0.064%Trim · 79% of the AIs chose itaverage chance of a rise: USA 41% · China 41%(effective voices ≈ 2.0)
WeekHold · 64% of the AIs chose itaverage chance of a rise: USA 45% · China 44%(effective voices ≈ 1.8)
MonthHold · 43% of the AIs chose itaverage chance of a rise: USA 55% · China 47%(effective voices ≈ 2.7)
6 monthsBuy on dips · 43% of the AIs chose itaverage chance of a rise: USA 64% · China 60%(effective voices ≈ 1.8 · on deviations from climatology ≈ 1.10)
AIs vs the crowdno market
10-year US Treasury yield · other horizons and the crowd ▾5.105▲ +10.7 bp · yield ↑ · bonds get cheaperToward a rise, on a dip · 50% of the AIs chose itaverage chance of a rise: USA 56% · China 53%(effective voices ≈ 2.0)
WeekToward a rise, on a dip · 50% of the AIs chose itaverage chance of a rise: USA 59% · China 56%(effective voices ≈ 1.8)
MonthKeep the bet · 43% of the AIs chose itaverage chance of a rise: USA 53% · China 55%(effective voices ≈ 2.7)
6 monthsToward a fall · 57% of the AIs chose itaverage chance of a rise: USA 40% · China 47%(effective voices ≈ 1.8 · on deviations from climatology ≈ 1.10)
AIs vs the crowdno market
Dollar index · other horizons and the crowd ▾103.18▲ +0.26%Hold · 93% of the AIs chose itaverage chance of a rise: USA 52% · China 53%(effective voices ≈ 2.0)
WeekHold · 43% of the AIs chose itaverage chance of a rise: USA 56% · China 56%(effective voices ≈ 1.8)
MonthHold · 50% of the AIs chose itaverage chance of a rise: USA 57% · China 54%(effective voices ≈ 2.7)
6 monthsTrim · 50% of the AIs chose itaverage chance of a rise: USA 44% · China 46%(effective voices ≈ 1.8 · on deviations from climatology ≈ 1.10)
AIs vs the crowdno price read
Fear index (VIX) · other horizons and the crowd ▾17.59▲ +0.57%Toward a rise, on a dip · 50% of the AIs chose itaverage chance of a rise: USA 56% · China 51%(effective voices ≈ 2.0)
WeekToward a fall · 29% of the AIs chose itaverage chance of a rise: USA 48% · China 49%(effective voices ≈ 1.8)
MonthKeep the bet · 36% of the AIs chose itaverage chance of a rise: USA 49% · China 52%(effective voices ≈ 2.7)
6 monthsKeep the bet · 57% of the AIs chose itaverage chance of a rise: USA 51% · China 50%(effective voices ≈ 1.8 · on deviations from climatology ≈ 1.10)
AIs vs the crowdno market
Gold · other horizons and the crowd ▾3,876.20▼ −3.11%Hold · 57% of the AIs chose itaverage chance of a rise: USA 44% · China 42%(effective voices ≈ 2.0)
WeekHold · 50% of the AIs chose itaverage chance of a rise: USA 49% · China 42%(effective voices ≈ 1.8)
MonthHold · 36% of the AIs chose itaverage chance of a rise: USA 55% · China 44%(effective voices ≈ 2.7)
6 monthsBuy on dips · 43% of the AIs chose itaverage chance of a rise: USA 62% · China 59%(effective voices ≈ 1.8 · on deviations from climatology ≈ 1.10)
AIs vs the crowdAIs: 37% chance of a rise · crowd 11% · effective voices ≈ 2.0 ↗ price at Thu 6:40 AM ET, $575 traded thin market
WTI crude oil · other horizons and the crowd ▾87.63▲ +1.27%Hold · 57% of the AIs chose itaverage chance of a rise: USA 41% · China 43%(effective voices ≈ 2.0)
WeekHold · 43% of the AIs chose itaverage chance of a rise: USA 41% · China 41%(effective voices ≈ 1.8)
MonthTrim · 50% of the AIs chose itaverage chance of a rise: USA 44% · China 40%(effective voices ≈ 2.7)
6 monthsHold · 64% of the AIs chose itaverage chance of a rise: USA 49% · China 50%(effective voices ≈ 1.8 · on deviations from climatology ≈ 1.10)
AIs vs the crowdAIs: 41% chance of a rise · crowd 37% · effective voices ≈ 2.0 ↗ price at Thu 6:40 AM ET, $1k traded another window: this question ends Thu 6:00 PM ET, not at our event's end
Brent crude oil · other horizons and the crowd ▾94.53▲ +1.91%Hold · 57% of the AIs chose itaverage chance of a rise: USA 43% · China 43%(effective voices ≈ 2.0)
WeekHold · 43% of the AIs chose itaverage chance of a rise: USA 40% · China 41%(effective voices ≈ 1.8)
MonthTrim · 43% of the AIs chose itaverage chance of a rise: USA 44% · China 40%(effective voices ≈ 2.7)
6 monthsHold · 64% of the AIs chose itaverage chance of a rise: USA 48% · China 49%(effective voices ≈ 1.8 · on deviations from climatology ≈ 1.10)
AIs vs the crowdno market
Copper · other horizons and the crowd ▾6.194▼ −1.52%Hold · 71% of the AIs chose itaverage chance of a rise: USA 48% · China 46%(effective voices ≈ 2.0)
WeekHold · 57% of the AIs chose itaverage chance of a rise: USA 52% · China 45%(effective voices ≈ 1.8)
MonthHold · 36% of the AIs chose itaverage chance of a rise: USA 58% · China 49%(effective voices ≈ 2.7)
6 monthsBuy more · 43% of the AIs chose itaverage chance of a rise: USA 64% · China 59%(effective voices ≈ 1.8 · on deviations from climatology ≈ 1.10)
AIs vs the crowdno market
Bitcoin · other horizons and the crowd ▾71,730▼ −3.65%Hold · 57% of the AIs chose itaverage chance of a rise: USA 44% · China 45%(effective voices ≈ 2.0)
WeekHold · 50% of the AIs chose itaverage chance of a rise: USA 44% · China 41%(effective voices ≈ 1.8)
MonthTrim · 36% of the AIs chose itaverage chance of a rise: USA 52% · China 42%(effective voices ≈ 2.7)
6 monthsBuy on dips · 43% of the AIs chose itaverage chance of a rise: USA 60% · China 56%(effective voices ≈ 1.8 · on deviations from climatology ≈ 1.10)
AIs vs the crowdAIs: 44% chance of a rise · crowd 50% · effective voices ≈ 2.0 ↗ price at Thu 6:40 AM ET, $20 traded another window: this Polymarket question ends Fri 12:00 PM ET, not at our event's end thin market

Dispute of the day

Fear index (VIX), day: 71% of US AIs say up, 43% of Chinese AIs

Fear index (VIX)Gold10-year US Treasury yieldCopper

Since the last issue: Nasdaq-100 — the turned to a fall; Chip index — the consensus turned to a fall; 10-year US Treasury yield — the consensus turned to a rise; Fear index (VIX) — the consensus turned to a rise. Changed side on the day: ChatGPT (chip index, fear index (VIX)); Qwen (chip index); Kimi (fear index (VIX)); Grok (chip index); DeepSeek (Nasdaq-100, chip index, fear index (VIX)); Meta AI (S&P 500, Nasdaq-100, chip index).

Past forecasts scored since the last issue: Week from Wed, Nov 4, 2026 — the consensus was right on 5 of 10; Wed, Nov 11, 2026 — the consensus was right on 7 of 10.

The AIs against the crowd

A close question people bet real money on at and : the AIs’ own odds of “Up” and the crowd’s price (each market’s day is in the card). A daily crowd question exists for 5 of the 12 markets. A crowd question counts from its own reference — on Kalshi, above the previous close at 4:00 PM; the score of the day counts from the open.

The same question as the crowd (the very market, its rules and its end):

For orientation — not quite the same question (another window, or Kalshi's price read between the two nearest strikes):

In one line: the AIs argue moderately, are neutral overall, their confidence is low.

34
0 — all agree, 100 — an even split
citations of a site another AI also cites: 46%, of the same link: 6% · cited most: reuters.com 21%
?Models can rely on the same news. Agreement is not independent confirmation; the heat shows how far their actions differ.
Direction
47%
mildly bearish · the AIs' average odds of a rise today over the 12 markets · effective voices ≈ 2.0
Confidence
13
How far the AIs' day odds are from 50/50, on average: 0 — a coin, 100 — all certain.
Each model on its own, by : Day 13 · Week 15 · Month 16 · 6 months 18.
They said 57% — it came true 55% (2186 day forecasts over 18 sessions, since Oct 19, 2026).

Can you act on this data

Where the virtual accounts stand, highest first: holding cash $100,258 · a 60/40 stock/bond portfolio $99,594 · the S&P 500 (bought and held) $98,885 · the Council $97,069. Measured on 91 comparable questions over 3 weeks; a conclusion needs 350. This is the standing, not a verdict. The crowd is more accurate than the Council by 2.2 points (crowd 75.8%, Council 73.6%), 91 questions. Council minus crowd, share of right sides: 95% interval from −11.0 to 3.9 points, 86 questions. Still noise, no conclusion drawn: 91 questions so far.

League sessions: 18.

Cost of calls. Spent: $26.46 today · $317.60 this month · $727.40 since 2026-10-16; 1008 calls, $0.72 a call on average.

Conclusion: today there is not enough data for a money decision.

Model portfolio in tickers (virtual, not advice)

How the league leader's book would look in tickers. A virtual reference, not advice. League leader: ChatGPT.

MarketTickerWeightWrong if
Dow JonesDIA20%52,800.00
GoldGLD15%4,020.00
S&P 500SPY10%7,710.00
US 10-year bonds (IEF)IEF10%4.900 · Entry: 4.970

Rule: at a Council confidence of 13 out of 100 (0 is a coin, 100 is all certain) do nothing. VIX is not bought.

Why this can and cannot be trusted

Herding ("effective votes"), prompt drift, calibration, the ledger of misses and the Council court: one block.

Herd index

78%

How alike the AIs' probabilities are today (100% = they all say the same).

When all the AIs agree too much, that is a reason to doubt.

Where the AIs disagreed most

  1. Chip index: 33% (DeepSeek) vs 70% (nova)
  2. Fear index (VIX): 35% (Wenxin (文心, Baidu; ERNIE)) vs 75% (nova)
  3. 10-year US Treasury yield: 30% (nova) vs 61% (ChatGPT)

Four roles on one market

SPX: bull 52%, bear 36%, historian 44%, crowd advocate 46%; historian against advocate: 2 points.

WTI: bull 30%, bear 75%, historian 60%, crowd advocate 45%; historian against advocate: 15 points.

SOX: bull 58%, bear 35%, historian 42%, crowd advocate 46%; historian against advocate: 4 points.

COPPER: bull 62%, bear 40%, historian 55%, crowd advocate 46%; historian against advocate: 9 points.

A gap between the roles is an observation, not a trading signal.

How to read them together

S&P 500 up and VIX down — calm growth. Yields up and the dollar up — pressure on gold, oil and emerging markets. Gold and VIX up together — fear. Copper up — factories and construction are speeding up, often China. Bitcoin moves first at weekends, when the exchanges are closed.

Prompt drift: how much the answer moves with the wording

BRENT: spread 4.65 points across 4 wordings (from 42% to 51%).

BTC: spread 4.79 points across 4 wordings (from 40% to 50%).

COPPER: spread 6.29 points across 4 wordings (from 38% to 51%).

A wide spread means the answer depends on the wording, so it should be trusted less.

Calibration: best ECE 0.022 (nova) · AIs overconfident: 2 of 14
  • nova: ECE 0.022 · Brier 0.239 · underconfident: sounds 59% sure, right 63%
  • DeepSeek: ECE 0.028 · Brier 0.235 · underconfident: sounds 56% sure, right 60%
  • stepfun: ECE 0.048 · Brier 0.239 · underconfident: sounds 54% sure, right 63%
  • Grok: ECE 0.050 · Brier 0.236 · underconfident: sounds 57% sure, right 62%
  • nemotron: ECE 0.050 · Brier 0.258 · overconfident: sounds 57% sure, right 51%
  • mimo: ECE 0.062 · Brier 0.241 · underconfident: sounds 55% sure, right 59%
  • zai: ECE 0.062 · Brier 0.241 · underconfident: sounds 55% sure, right 61%
  • Claude: ECE 0.064 · Brier 0.244 · underconfident: sounds 53% sure, right 59%
  • Wenxin (文心, Baidu; ERNIE): ECE 0.072 · Brier 0.241 · honest confidence
  • Kimi: ECE 0.073 · Brier 0.248 · honest confidence
  • ChatGPT: ECE 0.073 · Brier 0.240 · honest confidence
  • Qwen: ECE 0.074 · Brier 0.240 · honest confidence
  • gemini: ECE 0.083 · Brier 0.245 · overconfident: sounds 59% sure, right 54%
  • Meta AI: ECE 0.148 · Brier 0.239 · honest confidence

Yardstick (ForecastBench): superforecasters 0.086, best AI models 0.103, a coin (always 50%) 0.25.

What is a good Brier score?
  • 0 is perfect: every call was certain and right.
  • 0.25 is the same as always saying 50%: no skill at all.
  • 1 is the worst: sure of the answer and wrong. Our table and the yardsticks above use the same scale, so they can be compared directly.
Who is right in which regime: Council Brier from 0.218 (oil (WTI) up 2% or more on the day) to 0.249 (VIX below 18), 6 regimes
  • VIX below 18: 44 questions · Council Brier 0.249 · best AI Claude, 0.244
  • VIX 18 to 25: 113 questions · Council Brier 0.233 · best AI Qwen, 0.225
  • oil (WTI) down 2% or more on the day: 32 questions · Council Brier 0.240 · best AI nova, 0.231
  • oil (WTI) up 2% or more on the day: 28 questions · Council Brier 0.218 · best AI Qwen, 0.195
  • S&P 500 up on the day: 101 questions · Council Brier 0.237 · best AI Grok, 0.228
  • S&P 500 down on the day: 58 questions · Council Brier 0.239 · best AI Qwen, 0.221

An observation, not a conclusion. Regime = the market's state in the question's own data; Brier: 0 = perfect, 0.25 = a coin; the regimes overlap.

ECE = how far the stated odds are from reality (0 = perfect). Brier: 0 = perfect, 0.25 = a coin. Season 1 resolved forecasts, draws are not counted.

Book of misses: 25 of 142 cases where the Council and the crowd were both wrong
  1. 2026-11-05 · Dow Jones: Council 68%, crowd 87%, the market went down
    “The Dow Jones Industrial Average vaulted 3.03% yesterday to 53,356.12—adding over 1,575 points—and Dow futures are up…” — gemini
  2. 2026-10-20 · WTI crude oil: Council 62%, crowd 84%, the market went down
    “EIA weekly data released yesterday showed US crude inventories fell 7.2 million barrels, far larger than the 2 million…” — Wenxin (文心, Baidu; ERNIE)
  3. 2026-11-02 · : Council 68%, crowd 75%, the market went down

Court of the Council · one fact against the majority

After the seal, up to three AIs that disagreed with the majority name one fact it may be missing. The sealed forecast does not change.

  • ChatGPT on COPPER: Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse stocks fell 24% in the week to November 6, complicating the bearish demand narrative. (2026-11-12). Would admit the majority was right at 6.20. source
  • Qwen on WTI: OPEC+ output surged 2.04 mb/d in October, completely offsetting geopolitical risk premiums. (2026-11-12). Would admit the majority was right at 85.98. source
  • Claude on BRENT: Iran's deputy armed-forces chief says Hormuz stays shut until the Supreme Leader orders it; speaker Ghalibaf says it will never return to pre-war status. (2026-11-12). Would admit the majority was right at 92.28. source

Heat map: market × model × horizon

How to read: a row is a market, a column is a model; colour is the side (green up, red down), saturation is confidence; the number is the probability of a rise, %.

DayWeekMonth6 months

Tap a cell of the map: you get a link to that slice — market × model × horizon × this day.

Day

ChatGPTClaudeGeminiGrokMeta AINemotronAmazon NovaDeepSeekQwenKimiZ.aiERNIEStepFunMiMo
S&P 500▼46●51▼44▼39▼38▼42▲55▼38▼45▼44▼42▲55▼45▼44
Nasdaq-100▼40●50▼41▼36▼32▼38▲60▼32▼40▼45▼39●52▼40▼42
Dow Jones●48●52▲53▲53●52●52●52●52▲55●52●52●50●50▲57
Chip index▼39▼47▼39▼34▼38▼40▲70▼33▼45▼38▼38▲58▼45▼38
10-year US Treasury yield▲61●51▲58▲56▲58▲55▼30▲58▲60●50▲53●50▲55▼47
Dollar index●51●52●52▲54▲58●48●50●50▲55●51▲53●52▲55▲55
Fear index (VIX)▲57▼43▲57▲54▲55▲55▲75▲55▼40●52▲56▼35●52▲58
Gold▼44▼47▼45▼34▼38●48▲55▼32▼40▼42▼45●52▼40▼45
WTI crude oil▼44▼46▼42▼35▼35●50▼40▼42▼35▼40▼43●48▼45▼44
Brent crude oil▼44▼46▼43▼34▼35●50▼45▼42▼40▼40▼43●48▼45▼43
Copper▼45●48●48▼47●48●48▲55▼43▼45▼45▼47▼47▼45▼46
Bitcoin▼43▼46▼44▼44▼40▼42▲65▼47▼45▼45▼42▲53▼40▼45

Week

ChatGPTClaudeGeminiGrokMeta AINemotronAmazon NovaDeepSeekQwenKimiZ.aiERNIEStepFunMiMo
S&P 500●52●52▲55▼45▼42●50▼45●48▼40▼45▼42▼42▼44●50
Nasdaq-100▼45●48●48▼40▼35▼45▼40▼47▼35▼42▼40▼40▼42▼45
Dow Jones●51▲53▲60▲54●52▲55●48●52▲55●51▲54▼43●52▲55
Chip index▼44▼47▲54▼46▼40●50▼35●48▲55▼40▼38●52▼40▼42
10-year US Treasury yield▲63●52▲62▲58▲62▲60▼25▲58▲65▲53▲56▼38▲58▲55
Dollar index▲53▲55▲59▲55▲62▼45▲60▲55▲60▼46▲57▲53▲60▲53
Fear index (VIX)▲55▼41▼42▼40▲60▲65▼30▲56▼30●50▲58▼30●50▲60
Gold▼45▼45▲58▼40▼38▲55▲60▼44▼35▼42▼46▼40▼38▼45
WTI crude oil▼43▼43▼44▼38▼35▲55▼30▲53▼25▼40▼42▼38▼42▼44
Brent crude oil▼42▼43▼45▼37▼35▲55▼35▲53▼30▼40▼42▼35▼42▼44
Copper▼44▼47▲58▲55▲55▲55●50●50▼35▼45▲54▼38▼45●48
Bitcoin▼42▼45▼47▼39▼38●50▼45▲55▼40▼42▼38▼38▼38▼45

Month

ChatGPTClaudeGeminiGrokMeta AINemotronAmazon NovaDeepSeekQwenKimiZ.aiERNIEStepFunMiMo
S&P 500▲53▲55▲62▼40▼40▲55●50▲57▼35▼41▼40▼38●48▼46
Nasdaq-100●51▲53▲58▼38▼33▲58▲65▲58▼30▼40▼37▼35▼42▼44
Dow Jones▲54▲55▲66▲53▲55▲58●50▲57▲60▲53▲56●52▲55▲53
Chip index▲54●52▲65●51▼38▲60▲60▲57▲60▼45▼35●50▼45▼40
10-year US Treasury yield▲65▼45●50▲54▲65●50▼20●52▲55▲55▲58▼40▲60▲57
Dollar index●52▲54▲61▲56▲63▼42▲65●52▲55●50▲59▲56▲62●50
Fear index (VIX)▲54▼43▼36▲57▲62▼40●50▲53●50▲55▲57▼35●52●52
Gold▲55▼47▲66●49●48▲60▲65●50▼45▼40●51▼38▼40▼44
WTI crude oil▼41▼41▲56▼44▼38▲58▼25▲57▼35▼38▼40▼35▼42▼45
Brent crude oil▼40▼41▲57▼43▼38▲58▼30▲57▼40▼38▼40▼32▼40▼44
Copper●52●50▲65▲57▲60▲62▲60▲56▼45●48▲57▼35●52▼46
Bitcoin●52▼45▲62▼44▼40▲58▲70▲58▲55▼40▼35▼35▼38▼42

6 months

ChatGPTClaudeGeminiGrokMeta AINemotronAmazon NovaDeepSeekQwenKimiZ.aiERNIEStepFunMiMo
S&P 500▲62▲58▲70▲58▼42▲62▲60▲63▲60▲56●51▲58▲58▲64
Nasdaq-100▲61▲57▲68▲56▼38▲65▲70▲63▲65●50▼42▲55▲60▲60
Dow Jones▲60▲59▲72▲57▲58●52▲58▲60▲60▲58▲61▲58▲60▲62
Chip index▲62▲56▲73▲63▼42▲68▲75▲62▲70▲57▼44▲62▲62▲58
10-year US Treasury yield▼44▼40▼35▼38▲60▼40▼40▼45▼40●50▲56▼45▲55▼42
Dollar index▼45▼47▼38▼40▲58▼35●50▼45▼45▼42▲56▼42▲60▼42
Fear index (VIX)▼39▼45●52●50▲58●50▲60▼42▲60●50▲58●50●50▼35
Gold▲61▲54▲74▲60▲55▲65▲70▲60▲60●52▲60▲60▲55▲62
WTI crude oil▲54▼35▲53●50▼40●50●50▲58●50▼46●51▲55●48▼42
Brent crude oil▲54▼34●52●49▼40●48●50▲58▲55▼44●51▲55▼40▼42
Copper▲59▲55▲72▲63▲62▲68▲70▲60▲65▲56▲63▲58▲55▲56
Bitcoin▲58●51▲71▲57●48▲65▲80▲63▲70●52▼40▲60●52▲55

Actions — what the AI would do with its own virtual money: Buy more — would add now; Buy on dips — would add only if the price falls to its level; Hold — would change nothing; Trim — would sell part, keep the rest; Sell — would get out. For the 10-year yield and VIX the AIs bet on the indicator itself.

Calendar and market expectations

What the markets expect: Fed, Dec 9, 2026: +0.25 86%, +0.5 or more 10%, no change 4% · Fed, Jan 27, 2027: +0.25 54%, no change 46% · inflation, next release ≈ 3.7%

Coming up: Thu, Nov 12, 2026 8:30 AM ET — weekly jobless claims (US) · Fri, Dec 4, 2026 8:30 AM ET — the US jobs report · Wed, Dec 9, 2026 2:00 PM ET — the Fed's decision (the 10-year yield, the dollar, the indexes, gold) · Thu, Dec 10, 2026 8:30 AM ET — US inflation, CPI (the yield, the dollar, gold, the indexes) · moves first: 10-year US Treasury yield, dollar index, S&P 500, gold

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What speaks against us

Honest objections, each with what we check. Virtual money only.

  • In Alpha Arena Season 1.5 only 5 of 32 accounts ended in profit. We check: does our council stay ahead of the plain market baseline over many questions, not one good week.
  • In TradeRank season 2 only 3 of 13 agents made a profit, and all 3 were contrarian. We check: does a contrarian rule beat the crowd in our own sealed record.
  • Forecasting Research Institute: superforecasters score a Brier of 0.086, the best language models 0.103 (March 2026); parity is only an extrapolation. We compare with the crowd price, not with superforecasters, and we do not claim parity. We check the gap on our own sealed questions. ↗
  • The startup Mantic raised $25 million on 18 September 2026 after outscoring human entrants in a forecasting contest. Money raised is not proof of accuracy. We check every forecast with a seal made before the outcome.

How to verify

How to check it ▾

Check it in one step: one question, word for word, to every AI · sealed in our open hash-chained book, then anchored in Bitcoin · recount the score: CSV · the book · one news packet of the closed book

Sealed in our open hash-chained book before the outcome; the hash is anchored in Bitcoin (OpenTimestamps). Some answers were on a signed list before the open, the others came after it; those count from the first price after their answer — see proof of the day. From Oct 21: signed before the open; Oct 19–20: our own hash-chained book, anchored in Bitcoin. The book is the one open file of every sealed forecast, line by line.

Questions and answers

Who are these AIs?

Several independent AI models from different companies. Each gets the same question about every market, answers on its own, and every answer is shown under the model’s name.

Where does the data come from, and how can I check a forecast?

Prices are public market quotes. Every forecast is sealed with a timestamp and a hash before the New York open and counted against the real close afterwards. The sealed lists and all the data can be downloaded (CSV, JSON), so anyone can recount the score.

Are the AIs better than the market?

Not proven. So far 91 comparable questions are counted of the 350 needed for a statistical verdict; today the data do not show that the AIs beat the market.

Is this investment advice?

No. All money here is virtual. The forecasts show how well AIs call markets, not a recommendation to buy or sell anything.